Four More Years

So the verdict is in... and its four more years. Only this time it is with a mandate! Mr. Bush has made it clear that he will reach out to people who support his ideas! So what will 4 more years look like? I believe this will be more divisive than any other presidency this country has seen. All the so-called reforms that could not be passed in the first four years will be implemented.

First will be the continued retreat on environmental reforms. Drilling in Alaska will be pursued with determination. Emissions standards will be degraded. Second will be the social security reform. By giving control of the social security to the people while in some ways good, I believe in the end will only be detrimental. Investing in todays global market requires some understanding of the global markets. If the common Joe takes over this I fear we will see a problem with retirement savings being badly mismanaged.

Third is the foreign policy. This will be continued push for the American Hegemony in the Middle East. Policies to "impose" democracy in various unfriendly states in Middle East will be continued. After Iraq, I believe it will be Iran and Syria's turn. While I donot think there will be an allout war in either of these countries, atleast not while US is engaged in Iraq, there will be significant international pressure brought to bear on these countries. However countries like Saudi, Egypt etc whose governments are on friendly terms with the US will basically be allowed to govern without any major changes though we might hear reform rhetoric once in a while. Also Israel will be essentially allowed a free hand to conduct its policy in the region (The death of Yaseer Arafat should it happen will probably be to Israels advantage in the short term, but that is the subject of whole new topic). However I feel while the US gets bogged down in the Iraq, the next threat to US hegemony is probably taking shape in the form of China and to a lesser extent India. But I donot think the next four years will see any new strategy towards these countries other than more of the same. US will rudely awaken one day to the new reality and it will probably occur in the next decade.

The last will be the tax reform. Everytime some one has touched the tax code it has only got more complicated. So we will see what Bush does. But one thing is sure, if you are rich (earn more than $200K/yr) relax you will definitely stand to benefit.

So that is my prediction. There are going to be record number to protest rallies in the capital of US. More truths about the Iraq campaign will come to light. Some of the administrations moderates will quit (Colin Powell), the neocons will take center stage. In the republican party itself there will be a fight between the neocons and the conservatives. And I have not even touched the so called moral values; abortion rights etc... So let the games begin.